Disember 14, 2015
First, a review of the forecast for the past week:
- the publication of the last forecast for EUR/USD (a further rise and reaching 1.1000-1.1100) made skeptics say that couldn’t be right. Apparently, it could just as well. Already on Thursday, the pair got up to 1.1042 and reached 1.1030 next day, thus ‘scoring a brace’ in football terms;
- the GBP/USD pair was predicted to go up to around 1.5200-1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis pointed out that before rising, the pair might fall to support at 1.5055. In fact, GBP/USD first dropped to 1.4957, which is lower than expected, then it went up as predicted and finished the week at 1.5228;
- the USD/JPY pair defied the majority opinion, which doesn’t always prove right. The analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis had almost unanimously predicted sideways movement for the pair. However, the pair started to fall mid-week, broke through the 122.20 support on Wednesday and reached the low of 120.57 on Friday;
- there was no clarity about USD/CHF. One of the scenarios was a fall to support around 0.9765. The pair did go down but stalled at 0.9800 without hitting the said bottom level.
Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- most indicators, graphical analysis on H1 and 34% of the experts vote for EUR/USD to continue its upward trend to 1.1100. This is disputed by 66% of the experts, 25% of the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4. They believe that the pair will move sideways for some time, push off resistance at 1.1000, then break through support at 1.0900 and return to the values of the end of November. The first support is 1.0700, the next one is 100 points lower;
- as for GBP/USD, 80% of the experts believe that the pair will be moving in the side channel within 1.4900-1.5250 with the pivot point at 1.5000. However, most indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 disagree. According to their forecast, the pair will move in two waves, first reaching 1.5440 (followed by a roll down to 1.5300) and then 1.5500. Considering upcoming Christmas holidays, the end of the second wave can be expected in January;
- when drawing USD/JPY’s future movement, all indicators point downwards. Most analysts believe that 120.00 will be a very strong support level, bouncing off which the pair will go to resistance at 122.20 and possibly even higher to 123.20;
- all indicators on H4 show a fall for USD/CHF but on larger timeframes (D1 and W1) two-thirds of the indicators already point upward. As for the analysts, 30% reckon that USD/CHF hasn’t yet reached the bottom of 0.9650-0.9675. At the same time, 87% of the analysts agree that in the longer term, the pair should return to values above 1.0000. Thus, graphical analysis on D1 gives the pair two weeks to make it to 1.0250, with adjustments for the holiday season.
All forecasts may be subject to change as important economic data are released in the middle of the coming week.
Roman Butko, NordFX